1. Home
  2. Vol 4, No 4 (2023)
  3. Khairova

The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Export of Cereal Crops in Foreign Trade Activities Individual Countries

S. M. Khairova, V. V. Perskaya, B. G. Khairov, E. S. Galaktionova, D. B. Gazizova, N. R. Karymov

Abstract


Aims: The aim is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the dynamics of realizing the foreign trade potential of companies based on vector autoregression and the formation of strategic priorities for the companies’ economic activities. Methods: The research methodology is based on the application of methods of time series analysis and impulse response functions. The Granger causality test was used for the linear causal relationship between the analyzed indicators. The study used statistical data for the period 2001–2020 in the annual section of the World Bank Trade Map portal. Results: It is shown that the innovative development of the country contributes to an increase in non-raw material trade with countries geographically close to its borders. It was revealed that the level of agricultural development of the importing country influences the import of cereals with a lag effect of 3–4 years. Justified: The intensification of export-import operations contributes to the development of the production potential of countries as a whole, creating great potential for enhancing the economic activity of agricultural companies and creating incentives for the development of the economies of the country's regions. It has been determined that the foreign trade system is an equilibrium system that returns to a stable state 2-3 years after the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors. Novelty: The novelty of the study lies in the assessment of the dynamic impact of the shock impact of exogenous and endogenous factors on macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the specifics of the foreign trade turnover of countries. Conclusion: The results of the study can be used to develop a strategy for the development of foreign trade activities, including grain crops for both countries, to realize more reliable forecasting of foreign economic transactions with a lag of 3-5 years.

 

Doi: 10.28991/HEF-2023-04-04-08

Full Text: PDF


Keywords


Macroeconomic Factors; Multimodal Transportation; Foreign Trade Relations; Non-Resource Exports; Sanctions Pressure.

References


Abu Hatab, A., Cavinato, M. E. R., Lindemer, A., & Lagerkvist, C. J. (2019). Urban sprawl, food security and agricultural systems in developing countries: A systematic review of the literature. Cities, 94, 129–142. doi:10.1016/j.cities.2019.06.001.

Thompson, W., Dewbre, J., Pieralli, S., Schroeder, K., Pérez Domínguez, I., & Westhoff, P. (2019). Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices. Food Policy, 84, 1–9. doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.12.001.

Kruseman, G., Mottaleb, K. A., Tesfaye, K., Bairagi, S., Robertson, R., Mandiaye, D., Frija, A., Gbegbelegbe, S., Alene, A., & Prager, S. (2020). Rural transformation and the future of cereal-based agri-food systems. Global Food Security, 26. doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100441.

Shokoohi, Z., & Saghaian, S. (2022). Nexus of energy and food nutrition prices in oil importing and exporting countries: A panel VAR model. Energy, 255. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2022.124416.

Sheikhova, M. S., & Orlova, E. P. (2021). Grain market in Russia: analysis and development prospects. Bulletin of the Don State Agrarian University, 3, 137-144.

Шаповалова, А. М., & Сальников, А. В. (2019). Russia's policy towards Iran: challenges and risks, scenario for the development of relations. Caucasian Science Bridge, 2(2 (4)), 45-51. (In Russian).

Yang, Y., & Mallick, S. (2014). Explaining cross-country differences in exporting performance: The role of country-level macroeconomic environment. International Business Review, 23(1), 246–259. doi:10.1016/j.ibusrev.2013.04.004.

Todshki, N. E., & Ranjbaraki, A. (2016). The Impact of Major Macroeconomic Variables on Iran’s Steel Import and Export. Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 390–398. doi:10.1016/s2212-5671(16)30051-x.

Kacou, K. Y. T., Kassouri, Y., Evrard, T. H., & Altuntaş, M. (2022). Trade openness, export structure, and labor productivity in developing countries: Evidence from panel VAR approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 60, 194–205. doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.015.

Chakrabarti, A. S. (2018). Dispersion in macroeconomic volatility between the core and periphery of the international trade network. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 88, 31–50. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.019

Bierut, B. K., & Dybka, P. (2021). Increase versus transformation of exports through technological and institutional innovation: Evidence from Bayesian model averaging. Economic Modelling, 99. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105501.

Song, Y., Hao, X., & Zheng, L. (2022). Intermediate import, independent innovation and export sophistication of Chinese manufacturing enterprises. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 60, 126–140. doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.012.

Zhou, D., Peng, J., & Gao, X. (2021). Examining export trade and corporate innovation: A multiphase difference-in-differences method. China Journal of Accounting Research, 14(2), 207–230. doi:10.1016/j.cjar.2021.01.002.

Sener, S., & Delican, D. (2019). The causal relationship between innovation, competitiveness and foreign trade in developed and developing countries. Procedia Computer Science, 158, 533–540. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2019.09.085.

Bottega, A., & Romero, J. P. (2021). Innovation, export performance and trade elasticities across different sectors. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 58, 174–184. doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2021.05.008.

Yang, J., Rizvi, S. K. A., Tan, Z., Umar, M., & Koondhar, M. A. (2021). The competing role of natural gas and oil as fossil fuel and the non-linear dynamics of resource curse in Russia. Resources Policy, 72. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102100.

Černý, I., Vaněk, M., Maruszewska, E. W., & Beneš, F. (2021). How economic indicators impact the EU internal demand for critical raw materials. Resources Policy, 74. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102417.

Volanti, M., Savarino, F. O., Passarini, F., Vassura, I., & Grosso, S. A. (2021). Environmental analysis of crop rotations through the application of the Cereal Unit approach. Ecological Indicators, 121. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107199.

Chouchane, H., Krol, M. S., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2018). Expected increase in staple crop imports in water-scarce countries in 2050. Water Research X, 1, 100001. doi:10.1016/j.wroa.2018.09.001.

Shannak, S. (2022). Optimizing dynamics of water-energy-food nexus in a desert climate. Energy Policy, 164. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112884.

Pinsard, C., Martin, S., Léger, F., & Accatino, F. (2021). Robustness to import declines of three types of European farming systems assessed with a dynamic nitrogen flow model. Agricultural Systems, 193. doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103215.

Park, S. (2020). Quality of transport infrastructure and logistics as source of comparative advantage. Transport Policy, 99, 54–62. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.07.016.

Töngür, Ü., Türkcan, K., & Ekmen-Özçelik, S. (2020). Logistics performance and export variety: Evidence from Turkey. Central Bank Review, 20(3), 143–154. doi:10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.04.002.

Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2019). Logistics performance, exports, and growth: Evidence from Asian economies. Research in Transportation Economics, 78. doi:10.1016/j.retrec.2019.100743.

del Rosal, I., & Moura, T. G. Z. (2022). The effect of shipping connectivity on seaborne containerized export flows. In Transport Policy (Vol. 118, pp. 143–151). doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.01.020.

Cordón-Lagares, E., & García-Ordaz, F. (2020). Factors affecting the survival of maritime goods transport firms in Spain. Research in Transportation Business and Management, 37. doi:10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100520.

Wiederer, C., & Straube, F. (2019). A decision tool for policymakers to foster higher-value perishable agricultural exports. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2. doi:10.1016/j.trip.2019.100035.

Pérez-Mesa, J. C., García-Barranco, M. C., Piedra-Muñoz, L., & Galdeano-Gómez, E. (2019). Transport as a limiting factor for the growth of Spanish agri-food exports. Research in Transportation Economics, 78. doi:10.1016/j.retrec.2019.100756.

Yuan, H., Wang, K., & Yang, H. (2022). Rail’s efficiency gain by separating affiliated businesses and its impact on product mix of export by rail. Transport Policy, 115, 126–140. doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.11.004.

Papoušková, K. (2021). The concept of railway transport in the Czech Republic. Transportation Research Procedia, 53, 154–158. doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2021.02.020.

Feng, X., Wang, Y., & Zhao, L. (2022). Export capacity constraints and distortions. Journal of Development Economics, 157. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102889.

Wei, H., & Dong, M. (2019). Import-export freight organization and optimization in the dry-port-based cross-border logistics network under the Belt and Road Initiative. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 130, 472–484. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2019.03.007.

Saeed, N., Hoff, A., & Larsen, O. I. (2022). Analysis of hinterland transport strategies when exporting perishable products. Research in Transportation Business and Management, 43. doi:10.1016/j.rtbm.2021.100766.

Veselova, N. A. (2019). Features of foreign trade activities in Russia. Young Scientist, 51, 377-379.

Schofer, J. L., Mahmassani, H. S., & Ng, M. T. M. (2022). Resilience of U.S. Rail Intermodal Freight during the Covid-19 Pandemic. Research in Transportation Business and Management, 43. doi:10.1016/j.rtbm.2022.100791.

Azcona, N. (2022). Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners. International Economics, 170, 190–201. doi:10.1016/j.inteco.2022.04.006.

Yildirim, Z., & Arifli, A. (2021). Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy. Energy, 219, 119527. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.119527.

Liu, D., Meng, L., & Wang, Y. (2021). The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Journal of Asian Economics, 77. doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101398.

Togonidze, S., & Kočenda, E. (2022). Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile. Economic Systems, 100988. doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2022.100988.

Souza, R. da S., & Fry-McKibbin, R. (2021). Global liquidity and commodity market interactions: Macroeconomic effects on a commodity exporting emerging market. International Review of Economics & Finance, 76, 781–800. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2021.07.008.

Boateng, E., Asafo-Adjei, E., Addison, A., Quaicoe, S., Yusuf, M. A., Abeka, M. J., & Adam, A. M. (2022). Interconnectedness among commodities, the real sector of Ghana and external shocks. Resources Policy, 75. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102511.

Aragie, E., Balié, J., Morales, C., & Pauw, K. (2023). Synergies and trade-offs between agricultural export promotion and food security: Evidence from African economies. World Development, 172. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106368.

Wang, S. L., & McPhail, L. (2014). Impacts of energy shocks on US agricultural productivity growth and commodity prices—A structural VAR analysis. Energy Economics, 46, 435–444. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2014.05.006.

Udmale, P., Pal, I., Szabo, S., Pramanik, M., & Large, A. (2020). Global food security in the context of COVID-19: A scenario-based exploratory analysis. Progress in Disaster Science, 7. doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100120.

Chen, J., Kibriya, S., Bessler, D., & Price, E. (2018). The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan. Journal of Policy Modeling, 40(4), 663–684. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.01.014.

Doojav, G. O., Luvsannyam, D., & Enkh-Amgalan, E. (2023). Effects of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in a commodity-exporting developing economy. Journal of Commodity Markets, 30. doi:10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100332.

Faryna, O., & Simola, H. (2021). The transmission of international shocks to CIS economies: A global VAR approach. Economic Systems, 45(2). doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100769.

Berger, J., Dalheimer, B., & Brümmer, B. (2021). Effects of variable EU import levies on corn price volatility. Food Policy, 102, 102063. doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102063.

Swamy, V. (2020). Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India - A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach. Economic Analysis and Policy, 68, 126–150. doi:10.1016/j.eap.2020.09.008.

Sohag, K., Hassan, M. K., Kalina, I., & Mariev, O. (2023). The relative response of Russian National Wealth Fund to oil demand, supply and risk shocks. Energy Economics, 123. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106724.

Arvanitis, S. (2017). A note on the limit theory of a Dickey–Fuller unit root test with heavy tailed innovations. Statistics & Probability Letters, 126, 198–204. doi:10.1016/j.spl.2017.02.032.

Skrobotov, A. (2020). Structural Breaks and Unit Root Testing. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-48. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3594366.

Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424. doi:10.2307/1912791.

Granger, C. W. J. (1980). Testing for causality. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2, 329–352. doi:10.1016/0165-1889(80)90069-x.

Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Some recent development in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39(1–2), 199–211. doi:10.1016/0304-4076(88)90045-0.

Fedorova, E. A., Izotova, E. I. (2014). The influence of macroeconomic factors on the market for mergers and ac-quisitions in the energy industry in Russia based on the application of the Granger test for causality. Finance and Credit, 46 (622), 2-10.

Christiano, L. J. (2012). Christopher A. Sims and Vector Autoregressions. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(4), 1082–1104. Portico. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01737.x.

Greenaway, D., & Kneller, R. (2007). Firm Heterogeneity, Exporting and Foreign Direct Investment. Economic Journal, 117, 134–161. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02018.x.

Golikova, V. V., Gonchar, K. R., & Kuznetzov, B. V. (2012). Influence of export activity on technological and managerial innovations of Russian firms. Russian Management Journal, 10(1), 3-28.


Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.28991/HEF-2023-04-04-08

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2024 S. M. Khairova, V. V. Perskaya, B. G. Khairov, E. S. Galaktionova, D. B. Gazizova, N. R. Karymov